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Jim and Bret Hit the Debate Trail
Originally appeared in CBSNewYork.com on October 7, 2001 12:00 pm
(AP) (TRENTON)
Next week brings a radio debate and a
cable TV forum followed by an Oct. 25
debate to be broadcast on network
television.
After months of on-again, off-again
campaigning around the state and on TV to shore up their voter
bases, promote new ideas and polish images, now it is time for the
two men to come to grips without handlers or video editors. It will
take the race for governor to a new level and will lead into the
frantic two-week home stretch to Nov. 6.
There is suspense in how both will compete on issues and in style.
Who can win confidence? Who can look gubernatorial at a time of
crisis and stress?
Will McGreevey shrink as his opponent offers sweeping, intellectual
visions of a new dawn for government and education? Will
Schundler unhinge as his opponent pigeonholes him on his views
concerning abortion and guns?
And what will McGreevey and Schunder say about the new purpose
of this campaign.
One of the new American cliches is that the Sept. 11 terror attacks
changed everything. It has become a cliche because it happens to
be true. And, as with most cliches, it is too worn out to offer much
insight.
If everything has changed, then what has it changed into? What is
the political candidate's post-crisis agenda?
One clear item, the stepchild of the Twin Towers collapse, seems to
be recession.
Former Democratic Gov. Jim Florio, who left office in January 1994,
is still used by Republicans in their attack ads printed in
newspapers. Yet he said he does not envy the winner of the Nov. 6
election because he fears the state's current $22.9 billion budget is
on the brink of collapse, and tax revenues for the incoming
governor are going to tank.
"The assumptions that they worked from just six or seven months
ago clearly don't have any relevance to reality," said Florio after
ceremonies last week at which Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco
promised new security initiatives.
"Those are going to cost extra moneys. The combination of
decreased revenues and extra services means budget gaps that
have to be addressed in ways that are not easy," Florio said. "The
upcoming deficit is going to be dramatically greater than anything I
had to face."
New Jersey is especially dependent on the tax paid on income from
capital gains, most of it from stock sales. Wall Street, slipping since
May, has tumbled since Sept. 11. It would be scaring people except
for the fact they are too scared already by other things.
"I would have to believe most people, what is on their minds right
now, I think they would say fear of terrorism and the economy,"
said Jon Shure, a former aide to Florio and now a nonpartisan policy
analyst.
"Schundler has already done something unprecedented. He has said
there is going to be a recession. You usually don't see candidates
saying that," Shure said. "In bad economic times, the economy
dominates the race."
Schundler has rolled out ever new and more creative tax-cut
promises. Last week, he discussed a triple cut in business taxes he
claims will stimulate economic health during recession:
-- Eliminate taxes on urban real estate investment.
-- Allow companies to deduct more losses in order to reduce their
corporate tax on profits.
-- Let companies depreciate the value of equipment faster, allowing
larger tax deductions and encouraging expansion.
As he detailed these, however, Schundler could not provide
specifics on cost. How many millions will these cuts remove from
the Treasury Department's revenues? Taken together, he said, they
would be "much less" than $100 million.
"I think these cuts may actually stimulate more revenue, an
increase in revenue, because they will maintain and create jobs and
people with those jobs pay more income taxes," he said.
Shure said if the cuts are that small, how much of a stimulus could
they offer.
"Tax rates are a very tiny part of the decision making process" by
business executives, Shure said. "New Jersey should be very careful
before adopting anything that further decreases tax revenue,
because the government is going to be called upon to do things in a
recession."
Predictably, McGreevey spokesman Richard McGrath was more
harsh. "He uses crazy math that doesn't add up," he said. "His
proposals turn into red ink before it even dries."
McGrath said McGreevey's recession proposal is to stay focused on
property taxes and auto insurance, the main financial threats to
struggling families.
"Mr. Schundler may want to give money back to business. Jim
McGreevey wants to reduce property taxes for middle class families
so they can weather the bad times," he said.
Nick Acocella, publisher of the Politifax newsletter, said he is not
sure any of it amounts to much because voters are distracted by
tragedy and possible war. "Does it eventually resonate on issues
like leadership and the economy? I don't think so. But I don't know
what will," he said.
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