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McGreevey's budget problem
Originally appeared in the Star Ledger on 10/07/01
With the first gubernatorial debate set for Wednesday, we should get one thing settled right now: There's no dough.
Prior to the Sept. 11 tragedy, prospects for next year's state budget looked bad. Now they look awful. This is not good for the Democrats.
Jim McGreevey may have to face the fact that his moment in history has come and gone. If he had picked up those 20,000 or so votes in 1997 and beaten Christie Whitman, he would have become governor during a time of unprecedented prosperity. That might be the only time a Democrat can govern this state. The state Supreme Court and the teachers union have managed to rig things so that education costs will rise at a rate so far in excess of inflation that budget- balancing is impossible in normal times.
And McGreevey's promises can only make things worse. He wants a universal preschool program that would cost more than $300 million a year, universal full-day kindergarten at an unspecified price and an additional $40 million for "reading coaches."
When McGreevey announced that program last month, he also accused Republican Bret Schundler of wanting to "abandon" public education. I don't know if Schundler wants to do that, but I certainly do. If we in fact need reading coaches in a public school system that is as costly as any on the planet, then perhaps it's time to abandon the public schools.
Actually, we don't need to do that. We just need to streamline them and give them some competition, as Schundler has proposed. But McGreevey has presented himself as the defender of the status quo on education and the friend of the teachers union. In current economic conditions that stance can only lead to ever-higher education costs. And those costs can only lead where they led McGreevey back when he was in the Assembly and Jim Florio was governor – to higher taxes. McGreevey's deciding vote in favor of the Florio tax package shows where he stands on the matter.
As for Schundler, he stands where no man has stood before. He may be the first politician in American history to refer to the prospect of a recession as "wonderful." In a recent interview with the Associated Press, Schundler said this of the budget crunch: "The alternative is tax hikes. That is why it is so wonderful. We are facing stark realities that allow us to go one way or the other. It would be a lot harder to do this in a time when there wasn't a crisis."
It's comments like this that drive Schundler's fellow Republicans crazy. Schundler seems never to have a thought that he doesn't immediately proclaim to the nearest reporter. Most politicians are horrified, but on a certain level this kind of thing may connect with the voters. Remarks like this can't be scripted. Schundler must really believe cutting spending is wonderful.
McGreevey, meanwhile, sticks to his script. I interviewed him at length in August and at several points I tried to get him to commit to specifics. Each time, he looked at his watch and said he had to get going. Only a softball question kept him from leaving. That's smart politics, but the impression created is that of a man who will say anything to get elected and, once elected, will make all of the appropriate deals to keep his supporters satisfied.
People often complain that there is no difference between the two political parties. Not this time. The difference couldn't be more complete.
At Wednesday's debate we can expect Schundler to continue shooting from the hip and perhaps saying things that will get him into a certain amount of trouble. That's not news. But will McGreevey depart from his script? As things now stand, if he keeps all of his promises, he will have no alternative but to become what many of his supporters want him to be – the governor who once again looks for a "responsible" way out of the budget crisis, i.e. a tax increase. He doesn't have to declare a recession wonderful, but he does have to show the voters that he could be governor in a time of declining revenues.
Perhaps he can do that. More likely he'll stick to his script and keep connecting each remark with the appropriate emotion. That might be enough to get him through to Election Day, but then again it might not.
Paul Mulshine is a Star-Ledger columnist.
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