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Tough reading McGreevey's lips on the issues
Originally appeared in the Star Ledger on 10/30/01
If you've been watching baseball
lately, you've no doubt noticed that during conferences on
the pitcher's mound the players always hold their gloves
over their mouths. They do this in case the opposition has
hired someone to watch them on TV in the clubhouse and
read their lips.
Imagine if the opposition had hired someone to watch TV
and read Jim McGreevey's lips so it could figure out if he
intends to raise taxes. The guy's reports would go
something like this: "Yeah, he's gonna raise them. Hold
on! He just promised not to. Wait a minute, looks like he
found a loophole! Or did he?"
The guy scratches his head. "I give up," he says finally.
So do I. I've been watching this campaign quite closely and
I still have no idea what McGreevey will do about taxes. Or
education. Or car insurance. Or anything.
The promise not to raise taxes seems to have lasted all of
66 hours. In the debate last Thursday, the Democratic
candidate's remarks on the subject were summed up in
this way by one major newspaper: "McGreevey Vows He
Won't Raise Taxes."
But in the television debate Sunday morning, McGreevey
was asked by Gabe Pressman, "You won't raise taxes
unless there's an emergency, a crisis?"
"Yes," he replied.
"And then you might have to?"
"Yes."
Republican Bret Schundler then pointed out that
McGreevey's rationale for a tax hike is the same as that of
New Jersey's last Democratic governor.
"He has said unless he sees an emergency. That's exactly
what Gov. Florio said. Gov. Florio came in and two weeks
later he suddenly saw an emergency. And then he raised
taxes $2.8 billion."
Actually, that's not exactly what Jim Florio said. Here are
Florio's exact words explaining why he made a no-tax
promise in the 1989 election and then broke that promise
in 1990:
"I believed it. I believed it, based on the best information I
had at the time. I believed we would have the surplus
money Gov. Kean said we would. I was wrong."
He sure was. And he was especially wrong to blame his
desire for a tax hike on Tom Kean. As Kean pointed out
when I called him after the Sunday debate, everyone in
Trenton knew the numbers at the time Florio made his
no-tax pledge. The Democrats controlled the Senate that
year and they knew that budget inside out. That was
particularly true of the Democrats who put the budget
together. "Larry Weiss was chairman of the budget
committee, and if there was any problem with the budget
he could have stopped it cold," Kean said.
Not that state budgets are any great secret. "This is a very
open budget process we've had for the last few years,"
Kean said. "Anyone who is interested can't claim he
doesn't know the budget."
The scenario today is eerily similar to 1989. We're entering
a recession. That means revenues will fall below
projections. Meanwhile, costs are exploding, largely
because the state Supreme Court keeps demanding
ever-higher levels of education spending just as it did 12
years ago. The next governor must either cut spending or
raise taxes. Schundler has made it clear he will cut
spending. This has a political price. Just about everyone in
Trenton hates him, as does just about everyone in the
world of journalism if all of those McGreevey endorsements
in the papers Sunday are any indication.
My fellow journalists say Schundler is wrong in portraying
McGreevey as a clone of Florio. They've got a point but not
the one they think they have. McGreevey's not a clone. It's
more like Florio was the prototype and McGreevey is the
finished product. He is in a perfect position to take the oath
of office Jan. 15 and discover a budget crisis of epic
proportions on Jan. 16. By the way, here's another telling
quote from Florio as he announced the budget crisis
shortly after taking office: "I want to make one thing clear --
my pledge to lower rates and restore fairness to our car
insurance system is still the first order of business. That
task will be accomplished."
It wasn't. Florio's promises on car insurance rates were
worth no more than his promise on taxes. Then as now, it
is impossible for a Democrat to address these problems.
Fixing car insurance would alienate the trial lawyers. Fixing
the property tax issue would alienate the teacher unions.
And a Democratic candidate is the candidate of the
teachers and trial lawyers.
McGreevey is an improvement on Florio not because of the
skill with which he bamboozles the public on these issues
but because of the skill with which he bamboozles even
Republicans. Many leading GOP officials think Trenton will
be a comfortable place for them if McGreevey wins.
It won't. If the polls hold up and the Democrats win, they're
going to treat the opposition party only slightly better than
the Taliban does.
Read my lips: You guys blew it.
Paul Mulshine is a Star-Ledger columnist.
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