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I DON'T BELIEVE THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Originally appeared in PoliticsNJ.com on September 4, 2001
Throughout my years in Jersey politics, I have found the State House in Trenton to be a wonderland of conventional wisdom. The oracles of this conventional wisdom are certain Republican and Democrat staffers and consultants, the State House Press Corps, and the sages of the lobbying community. The problem is that the conventional wisdom is more often wrong than right.
If one seeks a classic case of the folly of the State House Conventional Wisdom, one need look no further than the 1993 gubernatorial election. I remember Tuesday, September 21, 1993, when Christie Whitman unveiled her income tax cut plan. At that time, I was serving as a senior policy advisor in the Assembly Majority Office. After her announcement, I thought that her tax cut plan would be the silver bullet that would win Christie Whitman the governorship. The members of the State House Conventional Wisdom Club, however, especially the Republican oracles, panned the tax cut proposal and predicted doom and gloom for the Whitman candidacy. Note the comment in Michael Aron's diary of the 1993 election, Governor's Race, for September 21,1993: "....I think she lost the election today."
I didn't believe the State House conventional wisdom then, and I don't believe the State House conventional wisdom now. I predict that Bret Schundler will win the governorship on Tuesday, November 6 by at least three percentage points.
No, I am not competing with the now defunct Literary Digest, who predicted an Alfred Landon victory over FDR in the 1936 presidential race. I am not unmindful of the recent Eagleton poll, although I note that it normally underreports the Republican candidate's statewide support by at least ten points. In the final weekends of the 1993 gubernatorial race and the 1994 U.S. Senatorial race, respectively, Eagleton had Florio up by 9 points over Whitman (she won by one percent) and Lautenberg up by fifteen points over Chuck Haytaian (Lautenberg won by only three percent). So much for the infallibility of Eagleton, an icon of the State House Conventional Wisdom Club.
I base my Schundler victory prediction on three factors: 1) his unique ability to project personal qualities that the voters are seeking in a governor; 2) his edge over Jim McGreevey with the voters on the four critical issues of schools and sprawl, taxes and tolls; and 3) my firm expectation that Bret Schundler will create wide gaps between himself and Jim McGreevey in the televised debates in terms of intellect, gravitas, and credibility.
First, let's go to the candidate himself. Republicans have controlled the governorship for sixteen of the last twenty years not only because of the issues and records involved in the respective campaigns, but also due to the abilities of Tom Kean and Christie Whitman to project qualities that voters seek in a governor. Tom Kean projected both empathy and insight in an era when voters felt that government had become insensitive and remote. Christie Whitman projected competence and unimpeachable integrity during the Clinton era, when voters felt that public officials were often lacking in both qualities.
Bret Schundler projects a unique combination of three elements: an encyclopedic intellect, an uncanny populist instinct, and an absolutely untainted personal morality. In 2001, the year of Gary Condit, Bret Schundler is the quintessential un-Condit.
Moreover, for those who review poll data more carefully than simply reading the unreliable head-to-head comparison, Schundler is succeeding in setting the agenda and connecting with the voters on the issues of schools and sprawl, taxes and tolls. In virtually every poll, a majority of New Jerseyans favor some option of private school choice, be it through vouchers or the Schundler tax credit/deduction plan. Bret's call for a constitutional amendment repealing the Mount Laurel II New Jersey Supreme Court decision strikes directly at the heart of one of the principle causes of sprawl, to wit, the infamous builder's remedy. McGreevey will never call
for the elimination of the builder's remedy since so many prominent suburban developers are major fundraisers in his campaign. Jim McGreevey talking about ending suburban sprawl is like Liz Taylor and Zsa Zsa Gabor discussing the importance of having one lifelong marriage. As for those who would attack Bret's position on Mount Laurel as being extremist, remember that it
was Tom Kean who referred to the Mount Laurel II decision as "communistic". As for the issues of taxes and tolls, Schundler's edge on these issues is established not only by his positions but by a comparison between the mayoral records of Bret and McGreevey on taxes.
The Democrats are not unmindful of Schundler's potential to score with the voters on these four core issues, and they have spent the summer crafting a "red herring" strategy of emphasizing abortion and guns. There is reason to believe that the abortion issue will backfire badly on McGreevey, while the gun issue presents a more serious challenge to the Schundler campaign.
The various State House self-annointed oracles badly misperceive the attitude of the New Jersey electorate on the abortion issue. To begin with, the polls reveal that in terms of abortion "litmus test" voters, there are roughly equal numbers of pro-life and pro-choice voters. Furthermore, while most New Jerseyans believe that women should have the abortion option, they do not feel that it should be a free and unrestricted right.
In short, the New Jersey electorate regards abortion as an unpleasant, but necessary option, but not as a sacrament. New Jersey voters overwhelmingly oppose partial birth abortions and favor mandatory parental notification. On both these issues, the Schundler position is closer to the view of a majority of New Jerseyans than that of Jim McGreevey. There are extremists on the
abortion issue in both the pro-life and pro-choice camps, and in catering to extremists on the pro-choice side with his recent statements on parental notification, McGreevey is placing himself at substantial variance with the position of a vast majority of New Jerseyans on this issue.
McGreevey has tagged Bret with a low blow on the concealed weapons issue by distorting the Schundler position. The good news, however, is that Schundler will recover from this low blow. Bret does not favor an unrestricted right to carry a concealed weapon. He believes, however, in not changing the present state of the law, which allows individuals to apply for a permit to carry a concealed weapon if they demonstrate a need. McGreevey has practiced McCarthyism of the Left by claiming that Bret would allow the average citizen to carry concealed weapons to high school football games. As the citizens of New Jersey get to know Bret and Lynn Schundler, however, they will realize how lacking in credibility is McGreevey's portrayal of Bret on
the gun issue, just as they came to dismiss in 1993 Jim Florio's false portrayal of Christie Whitman as a puppet of the gun industry.
During the next two months, New Jersey voters will focus on the central issues of schools and sprawl, taxes and tolls. They will come to see Jim McGreevey as the status quo candidate beholden to the special interests ofthe NJEA and state and municipal employee unions which keep our taxes high and our school system resistant to necessary reform. In the debates, Bret
will completely outclass McGreevey in terms of intellect and gravitas. Jim McGreevey taking on Bret Schundler in debate will look like Soupy Sales taking on Socrates, except that Socrates Schundler will not drink political hemlock.
The State House Conventional Wisdom Club will read this and say, "but what about all the internal infighting present among New Jersey Republicans?" Certainly, I regret the infighting; however, the good news is that Joe and Mary Sixpack do not give a damn about internal Republican and Democratic party matters. Joe and Mary will focus on the issues, and they will vote to elect Bret Schundler governor on Tuesday, November 6. I can assure you that Republicans of all stripes in our big tent, moderate and conservative, pro-choice and pro-life, will joyfully attend Governor Schundler's inauguration ceremonies in January, 2002.
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