Originally appeared in the Trenton Times on 10/18/01
By PETER ASELTINE
Staff Writer

TRENTON -- With less than three weeks to go in the governor's race, Republican Bret Schundler has cut Democrat Jim McGreevey's lead to 10 points among likely voters, according to an independent poll released yesterday.

Schundler, 42, the former three-term mayor of Jersey City, said the poll means he's right where he wants to be -- gaining, with enough time to close the gap. But McGreevey's campaign said his lead remains solid.

The poll by Quinnipiac University gives McGreevey, 44, the Woodbridge mayor, a 49 to 39 percent lead among likely voters. The poll gives McGreevey an 18-point lead among likely independent voters, a 14-point lead among women and a 6-point lead among men.

When all registered voters are included, not just those deemed likely to vote Nov. 6, the poll says McGreevey continues to lead by 14 points, 49 to 35 percent. A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters released Sept. 28 also showed a 14-point gap.

"In a heavy vote, Mayor McGreevey looks like a winner," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac polling institute. "But if the Democrat's cautious campaign fails to motivate supporters, Schundler's committed following could make a difference."

The poll surveyed 1,140 registered voters from Oct. 10 to 15, including 742 judged likely voters based on voting records and other factors. The margin of error for likely voters is 3.6 percent.

"We've got 10 points," Schundler said following a State House news conference with Connecticut Gov. John Rowland about eliminating Garden State Parkway tolls. "At this point in the primary, I was down by, I think, about 20. So I figure we'll kill him (by) 24 (points)!"

Schundler referred to his upset of GOP favorite Bob Franks by 14 points.

Schundler said the Democrats have outspent him on advertising.

"I think as we go up now with our television advertising, beginning tomorrow and going forward, I think what you're going to see is that we're going to narrow the gap even that much more rapidly," Schundler said.

McGreevey spokesman Richard McGrath said the poll is not alarming.

"The lead hasn't changed from their previous poll," he said. "They've just added a new category of likely voters. There are a lot of reassuring indicators. It shows Jim McGreevey has the support of Democrats and independents because they realize he is on their side on the important issues."

Reports released this week by the state Election Law Enforcement Commission show state Democrats -- including the party, political action committees and all candidates -- have outstripped Republicans in fund raising this year, $44 million to $25 million. The Democrats still have $21 million on hand, compared to $12 million for the Republicans.

McGrath said the Democrats will finance a major get-out-the-vote effort for Election Day.

"The Democratic Party in New Jersey in recent years has built up an efficient get-out-the-vote effort on the local level with volunteers and working people that can make a difference in carrying the ball across the finish line," he said.